Monsoon 2022 revisions

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 Monsoon 2022 prediction (Minor revisions)                                                

 

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Monsoon Onset:

 

Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is well above the EQ now, indicating a strong cross equatorial flow. The strength of westerlies is also increasing. Furthermore, the Somali jet is getting activated near the coast of Somalia, resulting in strong moisture convergence in the Arabian Sea. Lastly, the Rossby wave action is also strong and MJO will be moving into the Indian Ocean temporarily and then would be moving into Phases 3 or 4, which is favorable for monsoon current propagation. 

 

Looking at all these dynamics, there is a high change of the monsoon entering the mainland (KERALA) by May 27th ± 2 days. Therefore, according to us, ONSET date would be around May 27th, which is well ahead of its usual onset date.


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Subsequent to the Monsoon 2022 forecast released by our team on April 14, 2022, we are making some minor revisions to it. This report should be looked in conjunction with our earlier one.

 

Revision #1:  Based on the 1971-2020 climatology, the LPA for India is 869 mm (which has been revised based on IMD’s latest guideline). 

 

Revision #2: Earlier, the prediction for overall monsoon 2022 season was given to be 100% ± 6% (model error), which translates to 94% to 106 % of LPA.

 

We now revise this to 101% ± 4%. So, the revised outlook is 

 

Forecast range in %

Forecast range in numbers

Outlook

Confidence level

101% ± 4% (model error)

878 mm ± 35 mm

Normal season

70%

 

As per current conditions, there is a 70% chance of a NORMAL season while 20% chance of an above normal season and 10% chance of a below normal season exists. 

 

Revision #3: Earlier we had indicated that the month of June would bring good rains. We now take caution in this statement. We feel South Peninsular India would get excess, and Northwest and Northeast India would get normal rains, while North and Central India may get below normal rains. 

We attribute this to the fact that the monsoon currents may have a sluggish movement owing to weak temperature gradients over land. We will bring a more refined outlook for June once the monsoon onset occurs. 

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