Weather and micro-climate blogs (Copyright WeatherCast)

The 4-month long monsoon season signalled its arrival over mainland India, as the monsoon currents reached Kerala on May 31st, 2022. This signals an early arrival by 1-day.  According to the analysis by team WeatherCast, all the dynamical factors that are required for monsoon onset over mainland India has been satisfied. Very briefly, we summarise them below: 1. The westerly wind depth persists from surface to ~3.5 km that is commonly observed during monsoon season. This condition has been observed at many places over Kerala. 2. Under the influence of a gradually strengthening Somali jet, the low level wind speed over Kerala has increased to an average value of 12-15 knots. In the adjoining parts of Arabian Sea, the wind speed is much higher, showing values as large as 30 knots. Therefore, the wind speed is also quite sufficient for declaration of monsoon onset. 3. Light to moderate rainfall persistent activity has been seen over many parts of Kerala, and Karnataka. 4. The cloudiness q

  June as a whole for India likely to perform BELOW NORMAL. As per our estimates, the countrywide rainfall for June would be 90% to 95% of total.            This forecast has been prepared after extensive analysis of the prevailing dynamics, such as equatorial waves (Rossby, Kelvin), La Nina and IOD conditions, MJO movement, Arctic Oscillation index, differential heating index, ITCZ movement, and MISO movement.   Disclaimer: Weather and climate predictions carry some amount of uncertainty and are subject to sudden changes. We won’t be liable for any decisions made on the basis of our data and analysis.   For more  detailed/refined information, connect with us on  www.weathercast.in  or write to us at  info@weathercast.in . We offer customized solutions as per your needs.     Subdivision Name Rainfall LAKSHADWEEP Normal A & N ISLAND Normal COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH Above Normal ARUNACHAL PRADESH Normal ASSAM & MEGHALAYA Normal BIHAR Below Normal KONKAN & GOA Normal SAURASHTRA &

  Monsoon 2022 prediction (Minor revisions)                                                   Prepared and copyrighted by WeatherCast   If your business needs division-wise or district-wise predictions, then please contact us and avail our services. We also provide regional, local, and hyper-local weather and climate services for businesses and organizations to be prepared for any unseasonal or extreme event and bring sustainability and resilience. You can reach us at  info@weathercast.in  or  weathercastindia@gmail.com . Visit us at  www.weathercast.in     Monsoon Onset:   Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is well above the EQ now, indicating a strong cross equatorial flow. The strength of westerlies is also increasing. Furthermore, the Somali jet is getting activated near the coast of Somalia, resulting in strong moisture convergence in the Arabian Sea. Lastly, the Rossby wave action is also strong and MJO will be moving into the Indian Ocean temporarily and then would be moving

Our team has been on the fence with regards to the SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (SCS) ' ASANI' , since the ridge dynamics were highly tricky. The cone of uncertainty surrounding this cyclone is quite huge, with still some divergence in the weather models as to its exact track, landfall location, as well as intensity. This uncertainty is very uncommon given that the cyclone is just 48 hours within possible landfall. However, as an upcoming (read startup) private player in the field of weather and climate services, it is important to spell out what we feel is likely to happen based on the dynamics that we interpret. The Cyclone has enough fuel to maintain Cyclonic Storm status. The vertical wind shear is the only unfavourable factor, but it is not too high. The ridge action has been the main X-factor. The Indo-Pacific ridge movement has been very unstable for past few days and hence the models were divergent on the track. But now, it looks like the Indo-Pacific ridge has moved closer to

Monsoon 2022 prediction        (Posted on: April 14, 2022)                                                                Prepared and copyrighted by WeatherCast Pvt Ltd   If your business needs division-wise or district-wise predictions, then please contact us and avail our services. We also provide regional, local, and hyper-local weather and climate services for businesses and organizations to be prepared for any unseasonal or extreme event and bring sustainability and resilience. You can reach us at  info@weathercast.in  or  weathercastindia@gmail.com . Visit us at  www.weathercast.in     The monsoon 2022 season is less than 60 days away and we at WeatherCast LLP analyzed all available data and maps and have come up with our version of the forecast. The forecasts presented in this document are a combination of statistical modeling, physical interpretation from long-range models on evolution of major drivers such as ElNino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Indi