Monsoon 2022 arrives in Kerala on May 31st, 2022 signalling monsoon onset

-


The 4-month long monsoon season signalled its arrival over mainland India, as the monsoon currents reached Kerala on May 31st, 2022. This signals an early arrival by 1-day. 

According to the analysis by team WeatherCast, all the dynamical factors that are required for monsoon onset over mainland India has been satisfied. Very briefly, we summarise them below:

1. The westerly wind depth persists from surface to ~3.5 km that is commonly observed during monsoon season. This condition has been observed at many places over Kerala.

2. Under the influence of a gradually strengthening Somali jet, the low level wind speed over Kerala has increased to an average value of 12-15 knots. In the adjoining parts of Arabian Sea, the wind speed is much higher, showing values as large as 30 knots. Therefore, the wind speed is also quite sufficient for declaration of monsoon onset.

3. Light to moderate rainfall persistent activity has been seen over many parts of Kerala, and Karnataka.

4. The cloudiness quotient has increased considerably compared to last two days, which has resulted in low values of OLR. Therefore, low level clouds are seen over many part of Kerala and Karnataka.

5. Lastly, a wave action is seen in the East Central Arabian Sea, which is very likely to gradually strengthen the monsoon conditions over India in coming days. 

Given, all of the above dynamics, our team WELCOMES MONSOON 2022 over India on May 31, 2022.

As of now the monsoon currents are passing through Kannur (in Kerala), Coimbatore (in TamilNadu), and Nagapattinam (TamilNadu).

The monsoon is very likely to gradually strengthen in coming days. Our team is keeping a close watch on its movement as well as strength.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Onset of Indian summer monsoon

-
Image
The onset of Indian summer monsoon (or southwest monsoon) is the most anticipated event for the Indian population. The first monsoon shower is the most awaited one as many seek respite from the scorching heat, little ones gleefully wanting to play in the cool showers, and the agricultural community get in full swing to prepare the land for farming. Over the past few years, owing to climate change, the onset has been delayed ( https://www.firstpost.com/economy/imd-forecasts-delay-in-onset-of-monsoon-may-hit-kerala-coast-around-5-june-1971211.html ) and the monsoon itself has been erratic, with brief periods of heavy rain (active phase) and periods of no rain (break phase). This is in contrast to a decade or two back, when the onset on monsoon would be well-timed and the nature of monsoon was also steady (with consistent rains through out the season). However, urbanisation, greenhouse pollution, deforestation, and many other anthropogenic activities have led to the late onset and incon
Read more

Cyclone ASANI

-
Image
Our team has been on the fence with regards to the SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (SCS) ' ASANI' , since the ridge dynamics were highly tricky. The cone of uncertainty surrounding this cyclone is quite huge, with still some divergence in the weather models as to its exact track, landfall location, as well as intensity. This uncertainty is very uncommon given that the cyclone is just 48 hours within possible landfall. However, as an upcoming (read startup) private player in the field of weather and climate services, it is important to spell out what we feel is likely to happen based on the dynamics that we interpret. The Cyclone has enough fuel to maintain Cyclonic Storm status. The vertical wind shear is the only unfavourable factor, but it is not too high. The ridge action has been the main X-factor. The Indo-Pacific ridge movement has been very unstable for past few days and hence the models were divergent on the track. But now, it looks like the Indo-Pacific ridge has moved closer to
Read more

Indian Summer Monsoon 2018

-
Image
  A few days back, both Skymet weather services (a private weather forecasting firm) and the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD, a government organization) gave their predictions for the Indian summer monsoon 2018. Overall, they painted a positive picture, where both confirmed that monsoon 2018 is likely to remain normal at 100% (with error margin of +/-5%) of the long period average (LPA), where the nationwide LPA stands at 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September (for more details on this prediction see https://www.skymetweather.com/content/tag/monsoon-2018/ ). To elaborate, >105% of LPA indicates excess rainfall, <95% of LPA indicates below normal rainfall, and <90% of LPA indicates drought. Their prediction is based on the nationwide average and hence does not account for the state- and region-wise variabilities. Hence, although the prediction for 2018 is ‘normal rainfall’, this does not exclude the possibility of excessive rainfall in some regions a
Read more