Weather and micro-climate blogs (Copyright WeatherCast)

MUMBAI MONSOON 2019 PREDICTIONS: Blog post date: May 28, 2019 Mumbai monsoon is not just a season, it's a celebration. The people of Mumbai eagerly await the first showers, which signals the monsoon onset for the city and brings along nice and pleasant weather, abating the summer heat. The blowing breeze and sound of the dripping water make a delightful experience. The countdown begins... **So, what's in store for the maximum city during Monsoon 2019? Here is my take..** The onset is slightly delayed, owing to a stall in the monsoon currents. But the monsoon should start progressing again starting today/tomorrow. I expect the onset to happen between June 12-15 . This slightly delay in the onset has no bearing on the performance of monsoon during June 2019.  The 15 days are more than enough for Mumbai to reach the climatological June average of ~ 523 mm rainfall. Further, the +IOD conditions would most likely give a push to the monsoon in the later half of Jun

************************************** 2019 Monsoon Revised Predictions (Unofficial):       Blog date: May 14, 2019  ************************************** Near timely onset of monsoon   (since ENSO generally does not impact the onset). Hits Kerala on ~ June 2nd.  Mumbai ~ June 12th. 1. Mumbai, Goa, & Kokan - NORMAL 2. Kerala and Peninsular India - NORMAL 3. Central India - NORMAL 4. Coastal Karnataka:  NORMAL 5. East Coast- NORMAL 6. North-East - BELOW NORMAL 7. Gujarat and Northwest - BELOW NORMAL 8. North India- BELOW NORMAL 9. South India (Interior TamilNadu, Interior Karnataka and Andhra) - BELOW NORMAL ****OVERALL SWM 2019 - NORMAL (~ 97% - 98% of LPA) **** **************************** Basis of revision: **************************** In my last post, I had indicated that three factors hold the key, namely, ENSO, IOD, and MJO. In the past month conditions have changed a bit, hence this revision. Models outputs now indicate the fol