Monsoon 2019 for Mumbai - A short coverage

-
MUMBAI MONSOON 2019 PREDICTIONS: Blog post date: May 28, 2019

Mumbai monsoon is not just a season, it's a celebration. The people of Mumbai eagerly await the first showers, which signals the monsoon onset for the city and brings along nice and pleasant weather, abating the summer heat. The blowing breeze and sound of the dripping water make a delightful experience. The countdown begins...

**So, what's in store for the maximum city during Monsoon 2019? Here is my take..**

The onset is slightly delayed, owing to a stall in the monsoon currents. But the monsoon should start progressing again starting today/tomorrow.

I expect the onset to happen between June 12-15.

This slightly delay in the onset has no bearing on the performance of monsoon during June 2019.  The 15 days are more than enough for Mumbai to reach the climatological June average of ~ 523 mm rainfall. Further, the +IOD conditions would most likely give a push to the monsoon in the later half of June. The onset will be a soft one, unlike 2018.

Breaking down Monsoon 2019 for Mumbai:
*****************************************

 ONSET between: June 12-15.

 (A) June marks the beginning of the monsoon. Average rainfall during this month is ~ 523 mm.

June 2019 - NORMAL RAINS - 500-530 mm rains expected. There is a high chance that June month will experience 1 day of heavy rains (I base this on the fact that once MJO moves into our basin by 1st week of June, it will remain active and may strengthen by 3rd week of June).

(B) July is the rainiest month with an average of ~ 850 mm. I expect us to reach this average.

July 2019 - NORMAL RAINS - 850 mm rains expected. July will see a few days of heavy rains. The monsoon circulation/trough during this month reaches its peak strength. July sees a lot of synoptic systems (e.g. low pressures, depressions etc.) in the Arabian Sea & BoB, which many a times reach Mumbai.

(C) August generally sees rains reducing a bit. Average for August is ~530 mm.

August 2019 - SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL RAINS ~ 550 mm rains expected. This is based on the fact that El Nino would devolve fully and IOD may reach a peak.

(D) Average for September is ~ 300 mm.

September 2019 - NORMAL RAINS ~ 280 - 300 mm rains expected. Withdrawal symptoms begin and hence the activity starts diminishing.

***NORMAL MONSOON SEASON for MUMBAI with ~ 2200 mm rainfall expected during 

the entire monsoon season from June to September.***

You can follow my twitter handle @SriGMFL

Disclaimer: The content given here are all personal views and the author will not be held responsible or held liable for any oversight or misinterpretation.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Onset of Indian summer monsoon

-
Image
The onset of Indian summer monsoon (or southwest monsoon) is the most anticipated event for the Indian population. The first monsoon shower is the most awaited one as many seek respite from the scorching heat, little ones gleefully wanting to play in the cool showers, and the agricultural community get in full swing to prepare the land for farming. Over the past few years, owing to climate change, the onset has been delayed ( https://www.firstpost.com/economy/imd-forecasts-delay-in-onset-of-monsoon-may-hit-kerala-coast-around-5-june-1971211.html ) and the monsoon itself has been erratic, with brief periods of heavy rain (active phase) and periods of no rain (break phase). This is in contrast to a decade or two back, when the onset on monsoon would be well-timed and the nature of monsoon was also steady (with consistent rains through out the season). However, urbanisation, greenhouse pollution, deforestation, and many other anthropogenic activities have led to the late onset and incon...
Read more

Cyclone ASANI

-
Image
Our team has been on the fence with regards to the SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (SCS) ' ASANI' , since the ridge dynamics were highly tricky. The cone of uncertainty surrounding this cyclone is quite huge, with still some divergence in the weather models as to its exact track, landfall location, as well as intensity. This uncertainty is very uncommon given that the cyclone is just 48 hours within possible landfall. However, as an upcoming (read startup) private player in the field of weather and climate services, it is important to spell out what we feel is likely to happen based on the dynamics that we interpret. The Cyclone has enough fuel to maintain Cyclonic Storm status. The vertical wind shear is the only unfavourable factor, but it is not too high. The ridge action has been the main X-factor. The Indo-Pacific ridge movement has been very unstable for past few days and hence the models were divergent on the track. But now, it looks like the Indo-Pacific ridge has moved closer to...
Read more

Indian Summer Monsoon 2018

-
Image
  A few days back, both Skymet weather services (a private weather forecasting firm) and the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD, a government organization) gave their predictions for the Indian summer monsoon 2018. Overall, they painted a positive picture, where both confirmed that monsoon 2018 is likely to remain normal at 100% (with error margin of +/-5%) of the long period average (LPA), where the nationwide LPA stands at 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September (for more details on this prediction see https://www.skymetweather.com/content/tag/monsoon-2018/ ). To elaborate, >105% of LPA indicates excess rainfall, <95% of LPA indicates below normal rainfall, and <90% of LPA indicates drought. Their prediction is based on the nationwide average and hence does not account for the state- and region-wise variabilities. Hence, although the prediction for 2018 is ‘normal rainfall’, this does not exclude the possibility of excessive rainfall in some regio...
Read more