Cyclone ASANI

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Our team has been on the fence with regards to the SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (SCS) 'ASANI', since the ridge dynamics were highly tricky. The cone of uncertainty surrounding this cyclone is quite huge, with still some divergence in the weather models as to its exact track, landfall location, as well as intensity. This uncertainty is very uncommon given that the cyclone is just 48 hours within possible landfall.

However, as an upcoming (read startup) private player in the field of weather and climate services, it is important to spell out what we feel is likely to happen based on the dynamics that we interpret.

The Cyclone has enough fuel to maintain Cyclonic Storm status. The vertical wind shear is the only unfavourable factor, but it is not too high.

The ridge action has been the main X-factor. The Indo-Pacific ridge movement has been very unstable for past few days and hence the models were divergent on the track.

But now, it looks like the Indo-Pacific ridge has moved closer to Odisha, which means the curve indicated by some models is probably not going to happen. Therefore, it could be a direct hit to Andhra Pradesh, instead of a curve.

Even, if it curves, the major portion of the cyclone will make landfall over Andhra Pradesh, while the eye may just miss and move away. 


After a careful analysis of the prevailing dynamics, we at WeatherCast are taking a stance that the system is likely to move toward North Andhra Pradesh. In the worst case scenario it may make landfall as a CS or DD anywhere between Machilapatnam and Vizag. The likely landfall date would be morning hours of May 11th. 

Given this, we put North AP on high alert and Odisha at moderate alert.

Disclaimer: The views provided here are based on the prevailing weather patterns and available data. Weather and climate predictions carry some amount of uncertainty and are subject to sudden changes. We won’t be liable for any damages due to decisions made on the basis of our analysis. The details provided in this document are copyrighted by WeatherCast Pvt Ltd.


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