Revisions to my last post on summer monsoon 2019

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2019 Monsoon Revised Predictions (Unofficial):       Blog date: May 14, 2019 
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Near timely onset of monsoon (since ENSO generally does not impact the onset).

Hits Kerala on ~ June 2nd.  Mumbai ~ June 12th.
1. Mumbai, Goa, & Kokan - NORMAL
2. Kerala and Peninsular India - NORMAL

3. Central India - NORMAL
4. Coastal Karnataka: NORMAL
5. East Coast- NORMAL
6. North-East - BELOW NORMAL
7. Gujarat and Northwest - BELOW NORMAL
8. North India- BELOW NORMAL
9. South India (Interior TamilNadu, Interior Karnataka and Andhra) - BELOW NORMAL

****OVERALL SWM 2019 - NORMAL (~ 97% - 98% of LPA)****

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Basis of revision:
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In my last post, I had indicated that three factors hold the key, namely, ENSO, IOD, and MJO. In the past month conditions have changed a bit, hence this revision. Models outputs now indicate the following:
1. ENSO STATUS: Downgraded to WATCH mode from ALERT mode, which means chances of ENSO occurring has reduced. However, weak ENSO conditions may still prevail, but its impact may be less.

2. INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE (IOD): All models are indicating development of a positive IOD (+IOD) by start of June 2019, which would coincide with the start of the monsoon season. +IOD generally is good for the monsoon and can offset the ill-effect of ENSO.

3. EQUATORIAL DYNAMICS: EQ dynamics seems to be on track. Chance of MJO moving into the Indian Ocean basin by June is high.

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ROUND UP:
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1. Weak ENSO - Negative contributor to R/F.
2. Positive IO dynamics - Positive contributor to R/F.
3. MJO currents seem to be moving into our basin - Positive contributor to R/F.
ENSO and IOD dynamics have changed compared to last month, and hence somewhat positive influence on the monsoon rainfall has emerged.
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Disclaimer: The content given here are all personal views and the author will not be held responsible or held liable for any oversight or misinterpretation.

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