A look back at SWM 2018 and outlook for NEM 2018
W ith almost 75% of the Southwest Monsoon (SWM) season gone by, we enter the last leg of SWM 2018. A lot to cherish about SWM 2018 but at the same time, the erratic pattern of SWM 2018 won't be forgotten (#Kerala floods, #Kodagu floods, #Bihar drought etc.). The SWM 2018 made an early and powerful onset, but lost steam around end of July and August, bringing widespread fear about below normal monsoon. Current we are staring at a deficit of ~8%. Had it not been for the very heavy rains in Kerala, the deficit would have been in double digits. August is going to end on a larger deficit, compared to June and July. Inspite of three back to back low pressure systems in the #BayofBengal, August underlined the “Vagaries of Monsoon” - be it in terms of below average countrywide rains or circulation system positioning itself at one place for a week and delivering non-stop rains). Overall, SWM 2018 couldn't keep up the pace with which it started. This is not surprising ...